IS not stupid enough to stand in open for US airstrikes

[Anthea]

Middle East Eye

Civilians and Islamic State ship out of Raqqa ahead of Syria airstrikes

As rebels and Islamic State sign historic ceasefire in Damascus, civilians and IS militants alike evacuate Raqqa fearing US airstrikes

Huge numbers of people have continued fleeing areas of Syria controlled by militants from the self-styled Islamic State (IS), in advance of planned US-led airstrikes on IS strongholds.

Thousands have joined a mass exodus that began on Wednesday, as US President Obama announced in a televised speech that his plan for confronting the IS threat includes launching airstrikes on its militants within Syrian territory.

Residents have been leaving towns in IS strongholds in droves, fearing that the bombardment will cause civilian casualties as well as targeting militants.

Ferat al-Wafa, head of Broadcasters Without Borders who hails from al-Raqqa province, told Anadolu that residents of the area, “who buried around 50 martyrs killed by Assad’s planes on Thursday, are living every day in a state of fear.”

“The city of Raqqa has seen an active wave of fleeing to rural areas, which they see as being safer, in order to be further from the sites where IS are amassed.”

According to Wafa this wave of flight will exacerbate an “appalling” health situation in the city, where several of the hospitals are out of service.

“There is a lack of healthcare workers, and of materials – the hospitals are unable to cope with critical conditions at all. Such cases are transferred in Turkish hospitals” over 100 kilometres north across the border.

As families flee the city of Raqqa, there are also reports that IS militants are vacating their headquarters, looking to move their bases to more fortified areas.

Opposition activists told Anadolu that IS have been withdrawing their machinery and heavy weaponry from the city of al-Ashara, 200 kilometres south-east of Raqqa, for the past two days, heading for an unknown location.

Activist Yassin Abu Raid told Anadolu that IS militants have also been leaving the city of al-Bab, just north of Aleppo and 180 kilometres west of Raqqa.

“Militants have been sending their families to other areas” outside al-Bab, which are under control of rebels fighting against forces allied to President Bashar al-Assad.

Rebels and IS forge non-aggression pact

Amid reports that IS is regrouping ahead of expected IS attacks, an alliance of rebel groups bashed out a “non-aggression” with IS pact on Friday.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that moderate and Islamist rebels had signed a ceasefire deal for the first time in a suburb of the capital Damascus.

“The two parties will respect a truce until a final solution is found, and they promise not to attack each other because they consider the principal enemy” to be Assad’s government and his forces.

News site Orient Net published a list of the 11 clauses to the ceasefire agreement, which aims to halt the fierce clashes that have broken out between rebels and IS in and around Damascus over the past 45 days.

The site reported that al-Nusra Front - the militant group that on Thursday released 42 UN peacekeepers captured in the Golan Heights, had mediated between the two sides.

Charles Lister, an analyst at the Brookings Institute, reported that the alliance on the rebel side was made up of four distinct groups, among them the US-backed Syria Revolutionary Front.

Islamic State originally fought alongside the rebels but soon began attacking rival groups, before officially splitting with the Nusra Front earlier this year. Since then the two sides have been clashing frequently, allowing Assad's forces to regain momentum.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/civil ... 1804911802

[Anthea]

The Guardian

Syrian rebel fighters say Obama's air strikes won't deter Islamic State

Isis fighters 'know where to hide' from attack from the air and only 'boots on the ground' will defeat the insurgents, they say

Syrian rebel fighters and residents of northern Syria have expressed reservations about Barack Obama's military strategy to confront Islamic militants, saying US air strikes would have little military effect, would kill civilians and might even encourage sympathy for the insurgents.

Jaber Abdulkarim, 36, an opposition fighter from the province of Idlib who briefly came to Turkey to visit his family, voiced his doubts about the strategy Obama unveiled on Wednesday and said air strikes would not be able to defeat the Islamic State movement known as Isis: "They know where to hide in the case of attacks from the air," he said. He added that government forces had been bombing rebel positions for months. "We know shelters and caves, and so do the Isis fighters. If they want to deliver a serious blow to them, they need to put boots on the ground. Nothing else will bring success."

He added that fighters of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is opposed to the Damascus regime and the Isis fighters, had "more experience" after more than three years of conflict, but were in dire need of outside support. "We are tired and running out of provisions. Some fighters have changed sides and now fight with Isis simply because they are able to provide food, houses for their families and good weapons."

Faisal, 23, a fighter from Latakia province, said: "Morale is low. Nobody really stands behind us, we lack unity and cooperation amongst opposition fighters. On top of that, all the so-called FSA commanders are in Turkey, sitting in their camp. We lack leaders to guide us."

He underlined that, in his view, few rebels fighting in Syria recognised the Syrian National Coalition, which has welcomed Barack Obama's decision to bomb Islamic State insurgents inside their country. "They sit in their fancy hotels, in safety, talking and talking. With the money they spend in one week we could feed many fighters for a whole month. What do they know about the reality in Syria?"

The Syrian National Coalition previously said that it stood behind the international community's decision to fight Isis militants who have seized control of parts of Syria and Iraq. The coalition also urged the training and arming of the FSA, often referred to as the "mainstream opposition" and said that the removal of Bashar al-Assad's government was still the main objective of those fighting in Syria.

A 30-year-old FSA fighter from Idlib who did not want to give his name, agreed: "I don't really understand this sudden fuss about Isis. They killed people, but Bashar has been killing for the last three years. But nobody seems to be interested in that anymore."

Mohammed Al Bakhour, 31, a senior commander of an Aleppo-based FSA battalion who came to Turkey for his wedding this week, said that a loose coalition of armed opposition groups has been fighting against Isis in his area for over a year: "We have become quite good at that, but we need help. Instead of bombing Isis from the air, we need support inside Syria to fight. It's the only way." He added that the main objective should be the removal of the Damascus government: "Once Assad is gone, we'll deal with Isis ourselves."

Al Bakhour was worried that concerted air strikes targeting Isis would alienate opposition fighters. "Many of my men told me that they would change sides and join Isis should the US start bombing them instead of ousting Assad", he said. "They feel betrayed and disillusioned."

One opposition activist from Deir ez-Zor said that he did not want "foreign powers" to attack his country: "We have seen what the Americans did in Iraq, what happened in Afghanistan, in Somalia, in Yemen. Air strikes like these will kill a lot of civilians, innocent people." His family members all live in Deir ez-Zor, an oil-rich town close to the Iraqi border and currently under the control of Isis. "I find it inconceivable that they should do this without being invited to do so by the Syrian people."

Basil, 38, a shop owner from Raqqa, the self-declared capital of the Islamic State, also voiced vehement disapproval of the planned US-led operation: "Isis is in Raqqa, a big city full of people. How can they bomb them there?" He came to Turkey to look for a flat for his family in Gaziantep and said he was not involved in any political activities: "We have seen so much violence over the past years. We are tired. How will even more violence and even more death bring a solution?"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/s ... deter-isis

[Anthea]

Reuters
By Tom Perry

Islamic State goes underground in Syrian stronghold

Islamic State has gone underground in its Syrian stronghold since President Barack Obama authorised U.S. air strikes on the group in Syria, disappearing from the streets, redeploying weapons and fighters, and cutting down its media exposure.

In the city of Raqqa, 450 km (280 miles) northeast of Damascus, residents say Islamic State has been moving equipment every day since Obama signalled on Sept. 11 that air attacks on its forces could be expanded from Iraq to Syria.

Islamic State activists who typically answer questions on the Internet have been off line since then. Its leaders have not given a direct response to Obama: his speech last week was not mentioned in a video released on Saturday showing the beheading of British hostage David Haines by an Islamic State militant.

As the United States tries to assemble a coalition to fight Islamic State, the jihadist group appears to be trying to leave as much uncertainty as possible about its strategy.

Facing U.S. air strikes in Iraq, Islamic State fighters abandoned heavy weaponry that made them easy targets and tried to blend into civilian areas. In anticipation of similar raids in Syria, the group may already be doing the same.

In Raqqa, the group has evacuated buildings it was using as offices, redeployed its heavy weaponry, and moved fighters' families out of the city.

"They are trying to keep on the move," said one Raqqa resident, communicating via the Internet and speaking on condition of anonymity because of safety fears. "They have sleeper cells everywhere," he added.

"They only meet in very limited gatherings."

The top U.S. general promised on Tuesday "a persistent and sustainable campaign" against Islamic State in Syria, and Washington is probably already watching its positions in Raqqa. Obama approved surveillance flights over Syria last month, and footage taken by activists earlier this month appeared to show an American-made drone over the city.

The militants are not dormant; the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence in the country's civil war, said they had shot down a Damascus government war plane near Raqqa using anti-aircraft guns.

However, another resident said: "Islamic State is now carrying out tactical defensive moves by relocating their assets to different places so that their heavy weaponry is not all concentrated in one place."

Raqqa and the surrounding province is Islamic State's main base in Syria. Last month, its fighters drove the final government forces from the area when it seized an air base.

Since seizing the Iraqi city of Mosul in June, the group has also extended its control over neighbouring Deir al-Zor province, which borders Iraq. Making good on its promise to redraw the Middle East, Islamic State has declared a new province including territory on both sides of the frontier.

FEAR DRIVES UP PRICE OF DOLLAR

In Raqqa, Islamic State had taken charge of many aspects of civilian life, managing everything from traffic to bakeries in an effort to establish a state run according to its own, radical interpretation of Islam.

Islamic State has been trying to give a sense of business as normal even as it has reduced its presence in the streets, said another resident of the city whose population numbered about 200,000 before the civil war. "They are giving the impression they don't care," the resident said.

"These days the fighters are not deployed heavily on the streets. Only those who have to are appearing. The streets are empty and the people are worried and scared."

Some activists did appear on the outskirts of Raqqa on Tuesday. They were pictured collecting wreckage of the downed Syrian war plane and loading it into the back of a truck flying the group's black flag.

Since Obama's speech, shops in Raqqa have been closing early and the value of the U.S. dollar has jumped in the local hard currency market, residents said. Dozens of people have left the city, though there has been no sign of mass migration.

While preparing for an attack, Islamic State has also been trying to promote its cause among residents. Some already express support for the group whose rule has brought a modicum of stability, albeit in a hardline form.

A 14-point statement distributed in recent days reminded residents of Islamic State rules such as its ban on smoking and drinking, and requirement for women to cover up and stay at home. It also warned that anyone who dealt with President Bashar al-Assad's government would face death.

But the statement also tried to promote the group, telling residents they would see "the great difference" between Islamic State rule and that of the "oppressive secular government" - a reference to Assad. "Live joyfully and in plenty in an Islamic government," declared the statement, which was obtained by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Hassan Hassan, an analyst at the Delma Institute in Abu Dhabi, said the statement amounted to a carrot and stick approach. "It was obviously a move to reassure people but warn them at the same time," he said.

However, governing Raqqa would come second to survival in the face of U.S. air strikes. "(Islamic State) has always had that back-up plan, even before the news of an imminent action by Americans," Hassan said. "It's important to realise these people don't need to be in bases."

In one of the few responses to Obama's announcement, an Islamic State supporter warned of attacks on the United States and its allies if they continued to carry out military action against the group, the SITE monitoring service said on Tuesday.

Hassan said the group had yet to issue a proper response. "They are reflecting on what to do next. It's probably their way of making it vague - so that people don't know what to expect."

(Additional reporting by Mariam Karouny; editing by David Stamp)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/1 ... 2M20140916