Kurdistan’s Infant Democracy Has Learned to Walk
Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:38 pmOn Saturday the people of Iraqi Kurdistan elevated the politics of their autonomous region into a mature process. They proved that they are no longer the predictable electorate that the political parties of Iraqi Kurdistan can rely on to maintain the status quo.
But the following days and years will decide how far this maturity has reached the leadership of Kurdistan.
The results of the election -- regardless of the final outcome – have meant different lessons for the three main parties. Although initial results show that no party has received what it was hoping for, each will be under strong pressure to revise its policies, positions and alliances.
In addition to ending their Strategic Agreement that was based on equal partnership, the two ruling parties should realize that the rules of the game have changed and that each will now have to operate differently.
For the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) the message from Sulaimani is clear: The party cannot prevail upon the city and will always need a partner with a strong standing there.
But the toughest lessons of these elections are for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which suffered from the absence of its leader and also because of its alliance with the KDP.
PUK leaders were unable to convince the large portion of undecided voters why they should vote for their party instead of for the KDP. The absence of their leaders and the fragmentation of their existing leadership have turned the PUK into the third force in Kurdistan.
PUK leaders have the toughest of jobs. If they want to remain an influential political force they need to frankly address all their defects, from their leadership crisis to their status in Kurdistan's political process after the elections.
The PUK must decide whether it is staying in government or going into the opposition. In either scenario, they must also decide their relationship with the Change Movement (Gorran), given the fact that another election is only two months away.
Gorran, too, will be burdened by much greater responsibility if it decides to be an active political player. While it may be good to have a strong opposition in Kurdistan, a larger opposition unable to accomplish much in practice could lead to the political process going astray for all.
Gorran should know that the next government is going to be led by the KDP, if the numbers stay as they are. The KDP will look for a partner that is “stable and able to work together on a number of portfolios,” as some sources close to KDP’s leadership have said.
Oil, as well as relations with Baghdad, Syria and Turkey are all issues that the KDP will be looking to settle.
Gorran will have to decide how to politically translate the new weight it has gained at the polls. Will it join the government? Will it control parliament and get the speaker’s position? Or will it stay in opposition alongside the new empowered Islamic parties?
These are all early thoughts, based on early results that could change. But the main and concrete reality is that the Kurdish electorate has matured. The infant democracy of Kurdistan has learned to walk.
Comments
7 4 Slemani | 23/9/2013
Even if all articles don't say it, this elections are a victory for the PDK. It got about 40% of the votes and its votes also increased in Slemani. I hope for a PDK and YNK coalition, which showed us that it will lead to a development in Kurdistan.
Report
4 0 FAUthman | 23/9/2013
A walking toddler today, marathon runner in the not too distant future.
Report
7 5 Atheist | 23/9/2013
@Slemani: Remember 62% of people did not vote for KDP. You call this a victory for the KDP? I call it another lease on life. If KDP doesn't go through some pretty radical reforms and tackle important issues such as corruption, disputed territories, transparency, accountability in government etc etc. The KDP will follow the footsteps of PUK in the next election.
Report
4 2 Slemani | 24/9/2013
@Atheist, which party in the world get 62% of the votes? If you see it like that, Gorran dont get 80% of the votes. PDk is the strongest party, they won the elections they will build the government, with a partner that they can choose. So be an Atheist, but the PDK will rule over Kurdistan for the next 4 years with Gods help. Biji Kurdistan.
Report
0 0 FAUthman | 24/9/2013
The two key instruments of a functioning constitutional democracy for Iraq and therefore for Kurdistan/Iraq, if they get corrupted, your toddler wont have legs to stand on: First, IHEC, the Electoral Commission, whose role is obvious. It has to be absolutely trustworthy. Second, the Iraqi Supreme Court, which can, if dysfunctional, interpret the articles of the constitution to the liking of politicians (this could work both ways for the Kurds in dealing with Baghdad). Fortunately there is still UN presence in Iraq, and the Strategic Framework Agreement with the U.S.has not expired. These instruments will provide oversight. Furthermore, the U.S. is committed to be "in the region for the long haul" and is not about to abandon its huge investments in the country.
But the following days and years will decide how far this maturity has reached the leadership of Kurdistan.
The results of the election -- regardless of the final outcome – have meant different lessons for the three main parties. Although initial results show that no party has received what it was hoping for, each will be under strong pressure to revise its policies, positions and alliances.
In addition to ending their Strategic Agreement that was based on equal partnership, the two ruling parties should realize that the rules of the game have changed and that each will now have to operate differently.
For the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) the message from Sulaimani is clear: The party cannot prevail upon the city and will always need a partner with a strong standing there.
But the toughest lessons of these elections are for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which suffered from the absence of its leader and also because of its alliance with the KDP.
PUK leaders were unable to convince the large portion of undecided voters why they should vote for their party instead of for the KDP. The absence of their leaders and the fragmentation of their existing leadership have turned the PUK into the third force in Kurdistan.
PUK leaders have the toughest of jobs. If they want to remain an influential political force they need to frankly address all their defects, from their leadership crisis to their status in Kurdistan's political process after the elections.
The PUK must decide whether it is staying in government or going into the opposition. In either scenario, they must also decide their relationship with the Change Movement (Gorran), given the fact that another election is only two months away.
Gorran, too, will be burdened by much greater responsibility if it decides to be an active political player. While it may be good to have a strong opposition in Kurdistan, a larger opposition unable to accomplish much in practice could lead to the political process going astray for all.
Gorran should know that the next government is going to be led by the KDP, if the numbers stay as they are. The KDP will look for a partner that is “stable and able to work together on a number of portfolios,” as some sources close to KDP’s leadership have said.
Oil, as well as relations with Baghdad, Syria and Turkey are all issues that the KDP will be looking to settle.
Gorran will have to decide how to politically translate the new weight it has gained at the polls. Will it join the government? Will it control parliament and get the speaker’s position? Or will it stay in opposition alongside the new empowered Islamic parties?
These are all early thoughts, based on early results that could change. But the main and concrete reality is that the Kurdish electorate has matured. The infant democracy of Kurdistan has learned to walk.
Comments
7 4 Slemani | 23/9/2013
Even if all articles don't say it, this elections are a victory for the PDK. It got about 40% of the votes and its votes also increased in Slemani. I hope for a PDK and YNK coalition, which showed us that it will lead to a development in Kurdistan.
Report
4 0 FAUthman | 23/9/2013
A walking toddler today, marathon runner in the not too distant future.
Report
7 5 Atheist | 23/9/2013
@Slemani: Remember 62% of people did not vote for KDP. You call this a victory for the KDP? I call it another lease on life. If KDP doesn't go through some pretty radical reforms and tackle important issues such as corruption, disputed territories, transparency, accountability in government etc etc. The KDP will follow the footsteps of PUK in the next election.
Report
4 2 Slemani | 24/9/2013
@Atheist, which party in the world get 62% of the votes? If you see it like that, Gorran dont get 80% of the votes. PDk is the strongest party, they won the elections they will build the government, with a partner that they can choose. So be an Atheist, but the PDK will rule over Kurdistan for the next 4 years with Gods help. Biji Kurdistan.
Report
0 0 FAUthman | 24/9/2013
The two key instruments of a functioning constitutional democracy for Iraq and therefore for Kurdistan/Iraq, if they get corrupted, your toddler wont have legs to stand on: First, IHEC, the Electoral Commission, whose role is obvious. It has to be absolutely trustworthy. Second, the Iraqi Supreme Court, which can, if dysfunctional, interpret the articles of the constitution to the liking of politicians (this could work both ways for the Kurds in dealing with Baghdad). Fortunately there is still UN presence in Iraq, and the Strategic Framework Agreement with the U.S.has not expired. These instruments will provide oversight. Furthermore, the U.S. is committed to be "in the region for the long haul" and is not about to abandon its huge investments in the country.